I took some time to get all the facts and let things play out before commenting on the Ryan-Murray budget deal. With the academic semester coming to a close at most colleges and universities, it’s time to issue a grade here as well.
ECONOMICS: F. There’s no need to discuss all of the details because this deal does nothing to cut spending. Rand Paul summed it up appropriately when he commented, “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.” Spending cuts are only meaningful if they are real cuts (not reductions in proposed increases) and if they occur in the present. Real spending cuts are essential to any negotiated deal. Paul Ryan is correct when he bemoans the stream of continuing resolutions that have comprised a de facto budget in recent years, but this is largely Obama’s fault and is no reason to Republicans to surrender.
EFFORT: F. The Republican leadership clearly wants to cut a deal and go home.
POLITICS: F. This was the most difficult part to assess early on, as this deal is primarily about politics. The Republicans (once again) are giving up their most powerful card–control of the purse strings in Congress–to avoid potential backlash from another “shutdown.” Moderate Republicans seem happy to run against the Obamacare rollout fiasco next November, but the midterms are almost 11 months away. Besides, the real problem with Obamacare is the content, not the administration. Governments are generally inept at such tasks, but Obamacare’s troubles are due to design flaws that were identified long before the President signed the bill into law.
When I heard Boehner and Rove trashing FreedomWorks and the tea party, everything became clear. The old-line Republicans are in effect joining the Democrats in an effort to marginalize the libertarian wing of the Republican party as obstructionists. The idea is to thwart primary challengers with strong constitutional and libertarian bents, and then re-court their followers when the general election rolls around. Even if it works and we get a few more Republicans in the House and Senate, little if any will change. I’m not interested in party numbers, but in the direction of the country.
OVERALL: F. Paul Ryan is not all bad, but his desire to get a deal at any cost is not good for the country.
I understand why some view the deal as the lesser of evils, but if it is, then we need to reshuffle the deck. We’ll have that opportunity in 2014.
The battle lines have been drawn. It’s time to settle this in the primaries.
If libertarians are not happy with the way Republicans handles their core principles, why don’t they split from the Republican party instead of staying a political faction it it?
Boehner’s remarks afterward about the tea party did one thing – suppress GOP voter turnout in upcoming elections. The GOP would not have the House without the Tea Party.
Hey Parnell-I think running against the Obamacare mess might be a good idea. It can only get worse between now and next November. Do you think it could get better?
KJ: Yes, it MIGHT be a good idea, but I’m not betting on it. Obamacare will not function economically without substantial changes, but there are a lot of “fixes” will be proposed that set up the insurance companies as the bad guys aligned with the evil Republicans. When Pelosi said we have to pass it to see what’s in it, this is exactly what she meant. The Dems knew there would be problems, but they always have more government programs to plug the holes and get through the next election cycle. It’s NEVER a good idea to bank on winning an election because of circumstances. It’s great if problems with the opposition help your cause, but your campaign should be based on principles and ideas. Besides, what exactly would Boehner do to fix the Obamacare mess if he had more votes?
In 2010, the Republican party was totally united on one thing: opposition to Obamacare. They won back the house with the people behind them. And back then it was just an idea. Now it is a reality. This issue of a lifetime has been handed to them and now it is real. The chickens have come home to roost. Nothing will even come close in the 2014 elections. They don’t need to blow this by quibbling over some budget deal, which they always seem to lose anyway.
Obamacare will get worse in 2014. Democrats will try to blame insurance companies, but that could backfire. Over half of health insurance is sold by mutual companies. Calling them out is blaming the policyholders themselves. Good luck with that.
Employer mandates could get nasty. Consider than insurance companies currently have a business model where they negotiate with the employer, not the employee. Now they have to have both, meaning a huge ramp up in administrative costs. And they have to run it through healthcare.gov.
What can Republicans do if they get both houses? First, the deal breaker has always been the mandates, or tax as is now stands. Obama will veto a vote to repeal the tax. But can he veto an extension of the mandates? Secondly, they can keep him on the defensive for the rest of his term. He does not play defense well.